May 17, 2021
The Daily Express reports on May 15,2021, that the Philippines increased maritime presence in the contested waters of the South China Sea. In recent months, the People’s Republic of China established what is internationally viewed as a “provocative” presence in contested areas of the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
To date, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has appeared relatively indifferent to China’s aggressive surge in the region. However, in a televised address, President Duterte issued a stern message to the Chinese government: “We will not move an inch.”
In April of 2021, the Philippine military held exercises in the region, likely a measure to register a “show of force” to any perceived threats to the sovereignty of the EEZ. In response, the Chinese government issued an order to the President demanding a stop to such exercises that the Chinese deemed “actions complicating the situation and escalating disputes.”
The latest response by President Duterte constitutes a salvo of warnings and assertions demonstrating the resolve of the Philippine government in the face of Chinese aggression and dismissive rhetoric.
Comment: Historically, an expanded Chinese maritime presence in the region was a preamble to the seizure of a contested land mass. This increased presence will likely remain until the landmass is successfully occupied and later developed into a remote military installation.
However, it appears that both sides of this specific dispute don’t appear to be backing down (with the exception of the PRC removing some, not all, maritime vessels in the area). This could be in part due to a U.S. demonstration of force by four F-16’s armed with what appeared to be air-to-air missiles.
In a seemingly unrelated move, China has also increased aggressive military exercises directed squarely against Taiwan in an unprecedented scale. A wide variety of experts suspect China is attempting to secure areas rich in natural resources. However, based on the timing and degree of aggression waged against the Philippines, it appears China may be attempting to secure strategic locations that may prove valuable in a possible cross-strait incursion.
Tensions in the South China Sea will likely deescalate as the stand-off gains international attention. However, tactical commanders appear to show signs of fatigue which may lead to misunderstandings and knee-jerk reactions that may lead to maritime hostilities.
Philippines Security Watch 