It appears that while conflicts are erupting across the globe, one hotspot remains after all of the dust settles – Taiwan. It is arguable that we will see a degree of resolution in the middle-east and even in Europe, it seems there are slivers of hope that a compromise can be reached in conflicts in both regions. This isn’t to say they will be peaceful resolutions, these “compromises” typically come at a relatively large human cost. However, opportunities for peace present themselves as “aggressors” approach an unacceptable degree of loss, which usually calls players back to the table.
However, with regards to Taiwan, China has and continues to voice the Taiwan issue is non-negotiable and only has one acceptable outcome – reunification. As such, the prospect of regional conflict over Taiwan remains at the forefront of the global collective consciousness. This is due in large part to China making no secret of its intention to take the island nation by force if necessary. Chinese diplomatic demarches and public protests come almost daily as grievances are voiced regarding anything perceived as support or strengthening of Taiwan.
All of the sabre rattling and harsh diplomatic exchanges garners the attention of those worried of armed conflict. However, China has been engaged in an equally costly form of warfare, one that the west has not postured against as they have with Chinese Maritime aggression and other military “shows of force.” This form of warfare is in the area of global trade and economics.
Trade is Mightier Than The Sword
For most it seems of no surprise that China has engaged in aggressive maneuvering in the global economic arena. However, the volume and scope of these activities appear to be relatively underappreciated, so much so that it appears the west has not been able to formulate an effective strategy to counter or mitigate the Chinese Weaponization of Global Trade.
While the United States has, on a number of occasions, sent Naval Carrier groups to the Strait and re-aligned military resources to the Pacific region, it has done little to achieve the same degree of deterrence of Chinese economic coercion. I argue that the simple fact that China is pursuing these aggressive economic practices in an underhanded manner reveals that global trade is in fact the most critical vulnerability China possesses.
Heads-up, All-In
In terms of global trade, I look at China as a chip-leader at a high stakes Texas Hold ‘em table in Vegas, or perhaps the World Series of Poker finals. Imagine if you could, that China holds a volume of poker chips that literally dwarfs those held by other players at the table.
For instance, Japan may have a respectable stack of chips but nothing like the wall of chips sitting in front of China. Every decent hand that Japan receives, encourages Japan to issue a strong start prior to the “flop.” However, because China has a vast mountain of chips, she can call Japan’s bet nearly every hand. As the flop arrives, China has the resources to then issue a large bet of its own, perhaps one that Japan just simply cannot afford to call, else be forced to go “all in,” risking everything. Eventually, Japan takes a loss, while maintaining his seat at the table, “living to play another hand.” That hand was just one of many where other players at the table (including the reigning champ- the United States) suffer the same result.
However, imagine a Texas Hold ‘em game where the rules can be fixed upon encountering a “chip leading bully.” In this game, imagine that upon being dealt their hands, players can combine their chips together and bet against the chip-leader. Imagine that these rules can then allow for these other players to trade or even combine cards at any point in the game in order to achieve a winning hand. It is near likely that with these rules in place, China would surely suffer dearly and ultimately lose their seat at the high-stakes table. This is the strategy that needs to be applied to combat the Chinese weaponization of global economics.
No Room For Bullies
For the past two decades or so, China has expanded presence in countries rich with resources it organically cannot produce. This is a measure for China to achieve independence in global trade. To this extent, China has been successful in securing various resources like rare earth metals and even petroleum through strategic partnerships with Russia, and other “like-minded” states. This is how China achieved “Chip-Leader” status.
Upon attaining a seemingly dominative global trade position, China began to wield this dominance against those countries who have voiced opinions and policy decisions that go against Chinese interests. In response, players would mitigate losses by “folding” or seeking alternatives to dealing with China in given sectors of trade. This does not effectively counter economic aggression. Rather, it serves to embolden China upon making examples of those who dare side against her. Mitigating losses still result in loss and is in no way an offensive instrument of warfare.
How, does one stand up to a bully? As in every 80’s anti-bully themed movie, one would rally the masses against a common enemy and inflict pain, suffering, and embarrassment with the expressed purpose of obtaining compliance.
Like-minded countries (especially those with existing defense treaties and members of alliance pacts) should identify economic sectors upon which China relies exclusively on external vectors of supply. Upon doing so, collective leverage can be applied when China attempts to alter the global economic battle space. This is the only effective measure that can be applied when trying to maintain global economic homeostasis in the face of China’s attempts to upend the same.
In striking against Chinese economic aggression, the aforementioned critical vulnerability will reveal itself, thereby providing the solution that will keep the dragon at bay, perhaps preventing regional (or global) conflict.
China is known for having a plan for every endeavor it intends to pursue. These plans span the course of decades, some span centuries. Chinese policies are governed by these plans which are known to be rigid and lack flexibility. The key to countering China is not disrupting activities or inflicting damage. Rather, the key to dealing with China is simply influencing and altering policy behaviors, thereby imposing a deviation from established doctrines and plans to the extent that will induce decision paralysis. This paralysis will afford the west precious time to catch up to Chinese efforts that are decades in the making.
-Providence6
Philippines Security Watch 